Wednesday, November 19, 2008

One Man's Bowl Projections

I love bowl season. Unlike most college football fans, I watch just about every play of every bowl that I possibly can in the month of December. Whereas I wouldn't watch a down of Southern Miss vs Louisiana Monroe during the regular season, I'd look forward to it if you put the words "GMAC Bowl" in front of that matchup. I'm not sure why, it just takes on a different feel that time of year. As a result, around mid-November I usually start trying to figure out who is going to play who. I pay no attention to the projections you can readily find anytime on ESPN or any other website, I actually make these up on my own. (And since you asked, no.....I don't have any idea what is wrong with me.)

Anywho, this is all based on the way I see the remainder of the season playing out. First, my predictions on the big conference and national games for the rest of the regular season and conference championships (as of today):

This weekend:
Georgia Tech over Miami
Penn State over Michigan State
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Maryland over Florida State
Wake Forest over Boston College (clinches ACC Atlantic for Maryland)
Oklahoma over Texas Tech
Arizona over Oregon State

Weekend of Nov. 29:
Florida over Florida State
Georgia over Georgia Tech
Boston College over Maryland
Virginia Tech over Virginia (securing the ACC Coastal by way of 4-way tiebreaker)
Oklahoma State over Oklahoma (which puts Texas Tech into the Big 12 Championship)
Alabama over Auburn
USC over Notre Dame
Oregon State over Oregon
Utah over BYU (securing undefeated season for Utah)

Weekend of Dec. 6:
SEC - Florida over Alabama
USC over UCLA (clinching Pac 10 for USC)
ACC - Maryland over Virginia Tech
Big 12 - Texas Tech over Missouri

All of the above should create yet another BCS mess, with Texas Tech, Texas and Southern Cal all laying claim to the right to play Florida in the Title Game. I see Texas Tech getting the nod. Texas can't seriously have a bid, can they? Wasn't "you didn't win your conference" the excuse that everybody used against UGA last season? The computers are also much more enamored with Texas Tech than they are of Southern Cal, and games against Oklahoma and Missouri for the Red Raiders, as opposed to Notre Dame and UCLA for Southern Cal, won't help the Trojans' cause much. I'm guessing we're going to see a Florida-Texas Tech matchup for all the marbles. Of course all this assumes that Oklahoma State knocks off Oklahoma in Stillwater, which would give Tech new life. Certainly not a given. Undefeated Utah will get the automatic non-BCS conference bid, but Boise State (also undefeated) will be left out of the mix as Texas, Ohio State, and Alabama will fill the at-large spots.

BCS National Championship: Florida vs Texas Tech
Fiesta: Texas vs Ohio State
Sugar: Alabama vs Cincinnati
Orange: Maryland vs Utah
Rose: Penn State vs Southern Cal

The SEC is going to have a very difficult time getting enough teams to qualify for their bowl slots this season, with 2 teams all but certain to go to the BCS, and Auburn unlikely to get the required 6th win. The Dawgs look like a lock for the Capital One Bowl regardless of what happens against Georgia Tech next week. I believe the Capital One has choice of an East team over the Cotton Bowl, who traditionally picks a team from the SEC West and will choose either LSU or Ole Miss (whose game this weekend may be a play-in for the Cotton.)

Cotton: Oklahoma vs LSU
Capital One: Georgia vs Michigan State
Outback: Minnesota vs Ole Miss
Chick-Fil-A: North Carolina vs South Carolina
Music City: Vanderbilt vs Virginia
Independence: Kansas vs Kentucky

The rest of my projections (warning: there ain't much good in this list).....

GMAC: East Carolina vs Western Michigan
International: UConn vs Ball State
Liberty: Tulsa vs Arkansas State
Gator: Miami FL vs Notre Dame
Insight: Nebraska vs Illinois
Sun: South Florida vs Arizona
Armed Forces: Houston vs Air Force
Holiday: Oklahoma State vs Oregon State
Texas: Rice vs Bowling Green
Humanitarian: Florida State vs Boise State
Alamo: Missouri vs Northwestern
Papa John's: Pitt vs Clemson
Emerald: Wake Forest vs Oregon
Meineke Car Care: Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
Champs Sports: Georgia Tech vs Iowa
Motor City: Wisconsin vs Central Michigan
Hawaii: California vs Hawaii
Poinsettia: TCU vs Fresno State
New Orleans: Memphis vs Troy
Eagle Bank: Boston College vs Navy
Las Vegas: BYU vs Nevada
St Petersburg: Rutgers vs Southern Miss
New Mexico: UNLV vs Louisiana Tech

7 comments:

A Free Man said...

I'd really like to see Georgia - Missouri in the Cotton, just so my two alma maters could play. Likely? Unlikely?

Bop said...

Over/Under for Georgia-Missouri? 115 points.

I do agree that its highly unlikely the Capital One doesn't take a 10-2 Georgia team. I'd love to get a Cotton Bowl birth though.

Nice work btw JJ...Utah and USC would absolutely ROLL in those BCS games.

Worm said...

WTF?

JJ said...

A Free Man, I don't see any way that UGA and Missouri could play each other, as Missouri just has too many teams on the pecking order ahead of them in the Big 12. Two will get into the BCS, and there will still be 2 ahead of Missouri for that Cotton Bowl berth, which usually goes to the "#2 Big 12 team", which in this case is actually the "#3 Big 12 team." Georgia has an outside chance to get into the Cotton Bowl for the first time in 25 years, but in past years we've seen the Cotton defer toward the SEC West representative (except for that one year where they took Tennessee.)

Anonymous said...

I believe the Liberty Bowl picks ahead on the Independence Bowl. So you'll see an SEC representative in the Liberty Bowl but not the Independence Bowl.

JJ said...

Good call @ 9:59. Move Kentucky over to the Liberty. That will leave an open spot in the Independence, which could still go to Arkansas State, or perhaps Clemson if they get to 6 wins.

Amanda said...

The computers are also much more enamored with Texas Tech than they are of Southern Cal. amanda vanderpool fashion